2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 40-44 | Nova Scotia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in Nova Scotia

1. 3 of 11,403 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 0.03% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 92% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 28 of 5,338 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 25 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 6,065 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 196 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 38,089 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Nova Scotia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 92% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3 of 1,019,725 people aged 40-44 living in Nova Scotia died from Unknown Causes.

3 ÷ 1,019,725 = 0.00000 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 54 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,963,521 people aged 40-44 living in Nova Scotia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

54 ÷ 1,963,521 = 0.00003 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,019,725 X 0.00003 = 28 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3 – 28 = -25

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3 ÷ 28 = 0.0784

This reveals 25 lives saved and is 7.84% of what we expected (a decrease of 92%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

14 ÷ 6,730,880 = 0.00000 (5-yr CDR)

1,019,725(2022 pop) X 0.00000 = 2 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3 – 2 = 1 or 1 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3 ÷ 2 = 0.2435 or a decrease of 76%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,750,605 X 0.00003 = 213 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

17 – 213 = -196 or 196 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

17 ÷ 213 = 0.0585 or a decrease of 94%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Nova Scotia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.