2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Nova Scotia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Nova Scotia

1. 6 of 11,403 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 0.05% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 87% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 36 of 5,707 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 30 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 5,696 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 247 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 35,284 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Nova Scotia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 87% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 6 of 1,019,725 people aged 45-49 living in Nova Scotia died from Unknown Causes.

6 ÷ 1,019,725 = 0.00001 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 71 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,003,993 people aged 45-49 living in Nova Scotia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

71 ÷ 2,003,993 = 0.00004 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,019,725 X 0.00004 = 36 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

6 – 36 = -30

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

6 ÷ 36 = 0.1295

This reveals 30 lives saved and is 12.95% of what we expected (a decrease of 87%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

22 ÷ 6,730,880 = 0.00000 (5-yr CDR)

1,019,725(2022 pop) X 0.00000 = 3 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6 – 3 = 3 or 3 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

6 ÷ 3 = 0.4435 or a decrease of 56%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,750,605 X 0.00004 = 275 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

28 – 275 = -247 or 247 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

28 ÷ 275 = 0.0795 or a decrease of 92%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Nova Scotia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.