2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80-84 | Nova Scotia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80-84 in Nova Scotia

1. 63 of 11,403 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 0.55% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 78% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 272 of 22,823 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 209 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 11,420 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,822 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 94,806 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Nova Scotia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 78% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 63 of 1,019,725 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Nova Scotia died from Unknown Causes.

63 ÷ 1,019,725 = 0.00006 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 324 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,213,642 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Nova Scotia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

324 ÷ 1,213,642 = 0.00027 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,019,725 X 0.00027 = 272 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

63 – 272 = -209

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

63 ÷ 272 = 0.2231

This reveals 209 lives saved and is 22.31% of what we expected (a decrease of 78%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

184 ÷ 6,730,880 = 0.00003 (5-yr CDR)

1,019,725(2022 pop) X 0.00003 = 28 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

63 – 28 = 35 or 35 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

63 ÷ 28 = 1.6547 or an increase of 65%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,750,605 X 0.00027 = 2,069 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

247 – 2,069 = -1,822 or 1,822 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

247 ÷ 2,069 = 0.1151 or a decrease of 88%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Nova Scotia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.