2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 50-54 | Nova Scotia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Nova Scotia

1. 8 of 5,824 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 0.14% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 74% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 26 of 3,534 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 18 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 2,290 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 161 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 13,195 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Nova Scotia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 74% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 8 of 500,620 men aged 50-54 living in Nova Scotia died from Unknown Causes.

8 ÷ 500,620 = 0.00002 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 48 deaths from Unknown Causes among 927,830 men aged 50-54 living in Nova Scotia in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

48 ÷ 927,830 = 0.00005 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

500,620 X 0.00005 = 26 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

8 – 26 = -18

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

8 ÷ 26 = 0.2589

This reveals 18 lives saved and is 25.89% of what we expected (a decrease of 74%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

27 ÷ 3,292,830 = 0.00001 (5-yr CDR)

500,620(2022 pop) X 0.00001 = 4 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

8 – 4 = 4 or 4 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

8 ÷ 4 = 0.8780 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,793,450 X 0.00005 = 196 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

35 – 196 = -161 or 161 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

35 ÷ 196 = 0.1495 or a decrease of 85%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Nova Scotia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.