2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 55-59 | Nova Scotia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 55-59 in Nova Scotia

1. 14 of 5,824 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 0.24% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 59% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 29 of 4,237 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 15 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,587 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 161 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 7,863 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Nova Scotia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 59% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 14 of 500,620 men aged 55-59 living in Nova Scotia died from Unknown Causes.

14 ÷ 500,620 = 0.00003 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 51 deaths from Unknown Causes among 882,083 men aged 55-59 living in Nova Scotia in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

51 ÷ 882,083 = 0.00006 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

500,620 X 0.00006 = 29 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

14 – 29 = -15

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

14 ÷ 29 = 0.4124

This reveals 15 lives saved and is 41.24% of what we expected (a decrease of 59%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 55-59 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

44 ÷ 3,292,830 = 0.00001 (5-yr CDR)

500,620(2022 pop) X 0.00001 = 7 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

14 – 7 = 7 or 7 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

14 ÷ 7 = 1.1970 or an increase of 20%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 55-59 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,793,450 X 0.00006 = 219 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

58 – 219 = -161 or 161 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

58 ÷ 219 = 0.2255 or a decrease of 77%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 55-59 living in Nova Scotia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.