2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 25-29 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 25-29 in Ontario

1. 534 of 534 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 36% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 387 of 387 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 147 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 800 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 36% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 25-29 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 534 of 584,381 men aged 25-29 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

534 ÷ 584,381 = 0.00091 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,215 deaths from All Causes among 6,365,558 men aged 25-29 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,215 ÷ 6,365,558 = 0.00066 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

584,381 X 0.00066 = 387 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

534 – 387 = 147

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

534 ÷ 387 = 1.3595

This reveals 147 lives lost and is 135.95% of what we expected (an increase of 36%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 25-29 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,052 ÷ 3,623,222 = 0.00084 (5-yr CDR)

584,381(2022 pop) X 0.00084 = 492 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

534 – 492 = 42 or 42 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

534 ÷ 492 = 1.0721 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 25-29 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,207,603 X 0.00066 = 2,786 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3586 – 2,786 = 800 or 800 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,586 ÷ 2,786 = 1.2680 or an increase of 27%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 25-29 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.