2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 60-64 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 60-64 in Ontario

1. 4,514 of 4,514 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,979 of 4,979 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 465 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,898 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,514 of 492,464 men aged 60-64 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

4,514 ÷ 492,464 = 0.00917 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 47,254 deaths from All Causes among 4,673,994 men aged 60-64 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

47,254 ÷ 4,673,994 = 0.01011 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

492,464 X 0.01011 = 4,979 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,514 – 4,979 = -465

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,514 ÷ 4,979 = 0.9057

This reveals 465 lives saved and is 90.57% of what we expected (a decrease of 9%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

27,914 ÷ 3,100,589 = 0.00900 (5-yr CDR)

492,464(2022 pop) X 0.00900 = 4,434 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,514 – 4,434 = 80 or 80 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,514 ÷ 4,434 = 1.0170 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,593,053 X 0.01011 = 36,326 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

32428 – 36,326 = -3,898 or 3,898 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

32,428 ÷ 36,326 = 0.8918 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.