2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 80-84 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80-84 in Ontario

1. 8,769 of 8,769 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 10,591 of 10,591 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,822 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 12,750 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 8,769 of 149,941 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

8,769 ÷ 149,941 = 0.05848 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 104,315 deaths from All Causes among 1,476,840 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

104,315 ÷ 1,476,840 = 0.07063 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

149,941 X 0.07063 = 10,591 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

8,769 – 10,591 = -1,822

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

8,769 ÷ 10,591 = 0.8279

This reveals 1,822 lives saved and is 82.79% of what we expected (a decrease of 17%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

55,007 ÷ 933,475 = 0.05893 (5-yr CDR)

149,941(2022 pop) X 0.05893 = 8,836 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

8,769 – 8,836 = -67 or 67 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

8,769 ÷ 8,836 = 0.9923 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,083,416 X 0.07063 = 76,526 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

63776 – 76,526 = -12,750 or 12,750 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

63,776 ÷ 76,526 = 0.8333 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.