2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Teen-aged – Ages 15-19 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in Ontario

1. 92 of 288 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 31.94% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 333% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 13 of 307 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 79 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 19 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 171 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 310 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 333% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 92 of 849,796 teens aged 15-19 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

92 ÷ 849,796 = 0.00011 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 193 deaths from Unknown Causes among 12,863,147 teens aged 15-19 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

193 ÷ 12,863,147 = 0.00002 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

849,796 X 0.00002 = 13 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

92 – 13 = 79

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

92 ÷ 13 = 4.3297

This reveals 79 lives lost and is 432.97% of what we expected (an increase of 333%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

181 ÷ 5,924,577 = 0.00003 (5-yr CDR)

849,796(2022 pop) X 0.00003 = 26 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

92 – 26 = 66 or 66 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

92 ÷ 26 = 2.6698 or an increase of 167%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,774,373 X 0.00002 = 102 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

273 – 102 = 171 or 171 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

273 ÷ 102 = 1.6117 or an increase of 61%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.