2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 20-24 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 20-24 in Ontario

1. 165 of 535 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 30.84% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 431% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 20 of 468 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 145 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 67 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 413 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 392 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 431% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 20-24 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 165 of 1,057,363 people aged 20-24 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

165 ÷ 1,057,363 = 0.00016 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 253 deaths from Unknown Causes among 13,055,544 people aged 20-24 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

253 ÷ 13,055,544 = 0.00002 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,057,363 X 0.00002 = 20 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

165 – 20 = 145

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

165 ÷ 20 = 5.3116

This reveals 145 lives lost and is 531.16% of what we expected (an increase of 431%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 20-24 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

404 ÷ 6,968,557 = 0.00006 (5-yr CDR)

1,057,363(2022 pop) X 0.00006 = 61 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

165 – 61 = 104 or 104 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

165 ÷ 61 = 2.2957 or an increase of 130%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 20-24 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

8,025,920 X 0.00002 = 156 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

569 – 156 = 413 or 413 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

569 ÷ 156 = 2.4131 or an increase of 141%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 20-24 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.