2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Ontario

1. 297 of 1,776 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 16.72% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 371% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 54 of 1,918 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 243 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 142 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 626 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,762 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 371% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 297 of 920,106 people aged 45-49 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

297 ÷ 920,106 = 0.00032 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 880 deaths from Unknown Causes among 15,051,542 people aged 45-49 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

880 ÷ 15,051,542 = 0.00006 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

920,106 X 0.00006 = 54 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

297 – 54 = 243

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

297 ÷ 54 = 4.7146

This reveals 243 lives lost and is 471.46% of what we expected (an increase of 371%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

770 ÷ 6,625,557 = 0.00012 (5-yr CDR)

920,106(2022 pop) X 0.00012 = 107 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

297 – 107 = 190 or 190 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

297 ÷ 107 = 2.5574 or an increase of 156%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,545,663 X 0.00006 = 441 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1067 – 441 = 626 or 626 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,067 ÷ 441 = 2.0653 or an increase of 107%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.