2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 50-54 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 50-54 in Ontario

1. 408 of 2,971 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 13.73% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 489% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 60 of 3,145 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 348 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 174 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 918 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,110 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 489% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 408 of 952,495 people aged 50-54 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

408 ÷ 952,495 = 0.00043 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 867 deaths from Unknown Causes among 13,810,076 people aged 50-54 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

867 ÷ 13,810,076 = 0.00006 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

952,495 X 0.00006 = 60 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

408 – 60 = 348

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

408 ÷ 60 = 5.8855

This reveals 348 lives lost and is 588.55% of what we expected (an increase of 489%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,019 ÷ 7,156,064 = 0.00014 (5-yr CDR)

952,495(2022 pop) X 0.00014 = 136 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

408 – 136 = 272 or 272 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

408 ÷ 136 = 2.8107 or an increase of 181%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

8,108,559 X 0.00006 = 509 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1427 – 509 = 918 or 918 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,427 ÷ 509 = 2.4181 or an increase of 142%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.