2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – 55-59 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 55-59 in Ontario

1. 510 of 5,274 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 9.67% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 474% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 78 of 5,344 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 432 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 70 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,101 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 3,349 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 474% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 510 of 1,037,511 people aged 55-59 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

510 ÷ 1,037,511 = 0.00049 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 886 deaths from Unknown Causes among 11,722,486 people aged 55-59 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

886 ÷ 11,722,486 = 0.00008 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,037,511 X 0.00008 = 78 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

510 – 78 = 432

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

510 ÷ 78 = 5.7438

This reveals 432 lives lost and is 574.38% of what we expected (an increase of 474%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,219 ÷ 7,271,119 = 0.00017 (5-yr CDR)

1,037,511(2022 pop) X 0.00017 = 174 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

510 – 174 = 336 or 336 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

510 ÷ 174 = 2.7670 or an increase of 177%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

8,308,630 X 0.00008 = 628 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1729 – 628 = 1,101 or 1,101 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,729 ÷ 628 = 2.4316 or an increase of 143%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.