2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – 70-74 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Ontario

1. 510 of 12,187 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.18% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 224% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 150 of 14,967 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 360 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 2,780 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 701 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 22,060 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 224% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 510 of 702,728 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

510 ÷ 702,728 = 0.00073 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,349 deaths from Unknown Causes among 6,305,572 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,349 ÷ 6,305,572 = 0.00021 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

702,728 X 0.00021 = 150 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

510 – 150 = 360

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

510 ÷ 150 = 3.2408

This reveals 360 lives lost and is 324.08% of what we expected (an increase of 224%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,252 ÷ 4,255,315 = 0.00029 (5-yr CDR)

702,728(2022 pop) X 0.00029 = 207 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

510 – 207 = 303 or 303 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

510 ÷ 207 = 2.3856 or an increase of 139%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,958,043 X 0.00021 = 1,061 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1762 – 1,061 = 701 or 701 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,762 ÷ 1,061 = 1.5870 or an increase of 59%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.