2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 85-89 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 85-89 in Ontario

1. 848 of 20,527 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.13% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 84% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 458 of 20,457 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 390 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 70 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 696 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 11,128 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 84% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 848 of 210,952 elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

848 ÷ 210,952 = 0.00402 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,497 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,069,646 elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,497 ÷ 2,069,646 = 0.00217 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

210,952 X 0.00217 = 458 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

848 – 458 = 390

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

848 ÷ 458 = 1.8416

This reveals 390 lives lost and is 184.16% of what we expected (an increase of 84%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,305 ÷ 1,380,222 = 0.00239 (5-yr CDR)

210,952(2022 pop) X 0.00239 = 505 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

848 – 505 = 343 or 343 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

848 ÷ 505 = 1.6718 or an increase of 67%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,591,174 X 0.00217 = 3,457 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4153 – 3,457 = 696 or 696 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,153 ÷ 3,457 = 1.1957 or an increase of 20%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.