2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 90+ | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 90+ in Ontario

1. 1,312 of 26,462 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.96% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 75% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 750 of 23,296 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 562 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 3,166 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,257 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 6,430 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 75% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,312 of 139,349 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

1,312 ÷ 139,349 = 0.00942 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,277 deaths from Unknown Causes among 980,269 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,277 ÷ 980,269 = 0.00538 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

139,349 X 0.00538 = 750 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,312 – 750 = 562

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,312 ÷ 750 = 1.7458

This reveals 562 lives lost and is 174.58% of what we expected (an increase of 75%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,349 ÷ 864,464 = 0.00619 (5-yr CDR)

139,349(2022 pop) X 0.00619 = 862 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,312 – 862 = 450 or 450 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,312 ÷ 862 = 1.5192 or an increase of 52%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,003,813 X 0.00538 = 5,404 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6661 – 5,404 = 1,257 or 1,257 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,661 ÷ 5,404 = 1.2304 or an increase of 23%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.