2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 50-54 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Ontario

1. 268 of 1,783 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 15.03% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 482% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 41 of 1,894 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 227 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 111 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 608 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,442 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 482% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 268 of 468,251 men aged 50-54 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

268 ÷ 468,251 = 0.00057 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 605 deaths from Unknown Causes among 6,850,455 men aged 50-54 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

605 ÷ 6,850,455 = 0.00009 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

468,251 X 0.00009 = 41 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

268 – 41 = 227

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

268 ÷ 41 = 5.8215

This reveals 227 lives lost and is 582.15% of what we expected (an increase of 482%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

695 ÷ 3,554,170 = 0.00020 (5-yr CDR)

468,251(2022 pop) X 0.00020 = 92 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

268 – 92 = 176 or 176 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

268 ÷ 92 = 2.7845 or an increase of 178%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,022,421 X 0.00009 = 355 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

963 – 355 = 608 or 608 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

963 ÷ 355 = 2.4351 or an increase of 144%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.