2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 30-34 in Quebec

1. 347 of 347 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 368 of 368 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 21 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 399 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 347 of 579,370 people aged 30-34 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

347 ÷ 579,370 = 0.00060 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,963 deaths from All Causes among 7,814,523 people aged 30-34 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,963 ÷ 7,814,523 = 0.00064 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

579,370 X 0.00064 = 368 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

347 – 368 = -21

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

347 ÷ 368 = 0.9284

This reveals 21 lives saved and is 92.84% of what we expected (a decrease of 7%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,029 ÷ 3,789,814 = 0.00054 (5-yr CDR)

579,370(2022 pop) X 0.00054 = 310 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

347 – 310 = 37 or 37 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

347 ÷ 310 = 1.0982 or an increase of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,369,184 X 0.00064 = 2,775 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2376 – 2,775 = -399 or 399 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,376 ÷ 2,775 = 0.8430 or a decrease of 16%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.