2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 75-79 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 75-79 in Quebec

1. 10,964 of 10,964 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 12,621 of 12,621 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,657 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 13,358 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 10,964 of 346,841 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

10,964 ÷ 346,841 = 0.03161 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 119,344 deaths from All Causes among 3,279,834 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

119,344 ÷ 3,279,834 = 0.03639 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

346,841 X 0.03639 = 12,621 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

10,964 – 12,621 = -1,657

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

10,964 ÷ 12,621 = 0.8685

This reveals 1,657 lives saved and is 86.85% of what we expected (a decrease of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

60,114 ÷ 1,973,641 = 0.03046 (5-yr CDR)

346,841(2022 pop) X 0.03046 = 10,564 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10,964 – 10,564 = 400 or 400 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

10,964 ÷ 10,564 = 1.0375 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,320,482 X 0.03639 = 84,436 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

71078 – 84,436 = -13,358 or 13,358 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

71,078 ÷ 84,436 = 0.8416 or a decrease of 16%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.