2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 85+ | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 85+ in Quebec

1. 40,133 of 40,133 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 1% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 39,654 of 39,654 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 479 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4,926 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 1% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 85+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 40,133 of 431,044 elderly men and women aged 85+ living in Quebec died from All Causes.

40,133 ÷ 431,044 = 0.09311 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 388,931 deaths from All Causes among 4,227,685 elderly men and women aged 85+ living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

388,931 ÷ 4,227,685 = 0.09200 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

431,044 X 0.09200 = 39,654 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

40,133 – 39,654 = 479

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

40,133 ÷ 39,654 = 1.0120

This reveals 479 lives lost and is 101.20% of what we expected (an increase of 1%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85+ living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

244,132 ÷ 2,712,461 = 0.09000 (5-yr CDR)

431,044(2022 pop) X 0.09000 = 38,796 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

40,133 – 38,796 = 1,337 or 1,337 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

40,133 ÷ 38,796 = 1.0344 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85+ living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,143,505 X 0.09200 = 289,191 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

284265 – 289,191 = -4,926 or 4,926 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

284,265 ÷ 289,191 = 0.9829 or a decrease of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85+ living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.