2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 75-79 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 75-79 in Quebec

1. 4,957 of 4,957 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,282 of 5,282 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 325 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4,169 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,957 of 183,090 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

4,957 ÷ 183,090 = 0.02707 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 54,186 deaths from All Causes among 1,878,143 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

54,186 ÷ 1,878,143 = 0.02885 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

183,090 X 0.02885 = 5,282 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,957 – 5,282 = -325

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,957 ÷ 5,282 = 0.9381

This reveals 325 lives saved and is 93.81% of what we expected (a decrease of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

26,619 ÷ 1,055,875 = 0.02521 (5-yr CDR)

183,090(2022 pop) X 0.02521 = 4,616 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,957 – 4,616 = 341 or 341 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,957 ÷ 4,616 = 1.0735 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,238,965 X 0.02885 = 35,745 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

31576 – 35,745 = -4,169 or 4,169 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

31,576 ÷ 35,745 = 0.8831 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.