2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 40-44 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in Quebec

1. 416 of 416 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 16% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 494 of 494 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 78 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 767 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 16% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 416 of 303,792 men aged 40-44 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

416 ÷ 303,792 = 0.00137 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 7,359 deaths from All Causes among 4,525,992 men aged 40-44 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

7,359 ÷ 4,525,992 = 0.00163 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

303,792 X 0.00163 = 494 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

416 – 494 = -78

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

416 ÷ 494 = 0.8370

This reveals 78 lives saved and is 83.70% of what we expected (a decrease of 16%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,488 ÷ 1,954,076 = 0.00127 (5-yr CDR)

303,792(2022 pop) X 0.00127 = 387 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

416 – 387 = 29 or 29 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

416 ÷ 387 = 1.0671 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,257,868 X 0.00163 = 3,671 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2904 – 3,671 = -767 or 767 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,904 ÷ 3,671 = 0.7862 or a decrease of 21%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.