2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Quebec

1. 555 of 555 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 23% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 719 of 719 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 164 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,410 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 23% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 555 of 275,393 men aged 45-49 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

555 ÷ 275,393 = 0.00202 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12,202 deaths from All Causes among 4,671,444 men aged 45-49 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12,202 ÷ 4,671,444 = 0.00261 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

275,393 X 0.00261 = 719 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

555 – 719 = -164

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

555 ÷ 719 = 0.7686

This reveals 164 lives saved and is 76.86% of what we expected (a decrease of 23%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,626 ÷ 1,865,211 = 0.00194 (5-yr CDR)

275,393(2022 pop) X 0.00194 = 535 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

555 – 535 = 20 or 20 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

555 ÷ 535 = 1.0314 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,140,604 X 0.00261 = 5,591 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4181 – 5,591 = -1,410 or 1,410 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,181 ÷ 5,591 = 0.7449 or a decrease of 26%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.