2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 50-54 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Quebec

1. 844 of 844 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 23% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,091 of 1,091 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 247 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,097 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 23% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 844 of 264,169 men aged 50-54 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

844 ÷ 264,169 = 0.00319 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 18,392 deaths from All Causes among 4,453,206 men aged 50-54 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,392 ÷ 4,453,206 = 0.00413 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

264,169 X 0.00413 = 1,091 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

844 – 1,091 = -247

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

844 ÷ 1,091 = 0.7717

This reveals 247 lives saved and is 77.17% of what we expected (a decrease of 23%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,686 ÷ 2,066,771 = 0.00323 (5-yr CDR)

264,169(2022 pop) X 0.00323 = 855 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

844 – 855 = -11 or 11 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

844 ÷ 855 = 0.9846 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,330,940 X 0.00413 = 9,627 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7530 – 9,627 = -2,097 or 2,097 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,530 ÷ 9,627 = 0.7803 or a decrease of 22%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.