2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 85+ | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 85+ in Quebec

1. 16,935 of 16,935 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 17,784 of 17,784 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 849 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 7,352 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 85+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 16,935 of 170,541 elderly men aged 85+ living in Quebec died from All Causes.

16,935 ÷ 170,541 = 0.09930 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 150,207 deaths from All Causes among 1,440,388 elderly men aged 85+ living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

150,207 ÷ 1,440,388 = 0.10428 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

170,541 X 0.10428 = 17,784 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

16,935 – 17,784 = -849

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

16,935 ÷ 17,784 = 0.9521

This reveals 849 lives saved and is 95.21% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85+ living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

101,745 ÷ 1,038,021 = 0.09802 (5-yr CDR)

170,541(2022 pop) X 0.09802 = 16,716 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

16,935 – 16,716 = 219 or 219 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

16,935 ÷ 16,716 = 1.0130 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85+ living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,208,562 X 0.10428 = 126,032 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

118680 – 126,032 = -7,352 or 7,352 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

118,680 ÷ 126,032 = 0.9416 or a decrease of 6%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85+ living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.