2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 90+ | Saskatchewan, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in Saskatchewan

1. 45 of 1,023 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.40% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 109% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 22 of 903 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 23 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 120 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 24 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,501 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Saskatchewan’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 109% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 45 of 3,298 elderly men aged 90+ living in Saskatchewan died from Unknown Causes.

45 ÷ 3,298 = 0.01364 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 227 deaths from Unknown Causes among 34,758 elderly men aged 90+ living in Saskatchewan in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

227 ÷ 34,758 = 0.00653 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

3,298 X 0.00653 = 22 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

45 – 22 = 23

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

45 ÷ 22 = 2.0861

This reveals 23 lives lost and is 208.61% of what we expected (an increase of 109%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Saskatchewan in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

159 ÷ 24,204 = 0.00657 (5-yr CDR)

3,298(2022 pop) X 0.00657 = 22 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

45 – 22 = 23 or 23 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

45 ÷ 22 = 2.0739 or an increase of 107%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Saskatchewan in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

27,502 X 0.00653 = 180 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

204 – 180 = 24 or 24 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

204 ÷ 180 = 1.1340 or an increase of 13%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Saskatchewan in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.