2022 Deaths – All Causes – Elderly Men And Women – Ages 70-74 | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Alabama

1. 7,544 of 7,544 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 1% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 7,457 of 7,457 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 87 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 362 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 1% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 7,544 of 243,171 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Alabama died from All Causes.

7,544 ÷ 243,171 = 0.03102 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 72,595 deaths from All Causes among 2,367,398 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

72,595 ÷ 2,367,398 = 0.03066 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

243,171 X 0.03066 = 7,457 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

7,544 – 7,457 = 87

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

7,544 ÷ 7,457 = 1.0114

This reveals 87 lives lost and is 101.14% of what we expected (an increase of 1%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

46,087 ÷ 1,517,588 = 0.03037 (5-yr CDR)

243,171(2022 pop) X 0.03037 = 7,385 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7,544 – 7,385 = 159 or 159 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

7,544 ÷ 7,385 = 1.0212 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,760,759 X 0.03066 = 53,993 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

53631 – 53,993 = -362 or 362 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

53,631 ÷ 53,993 = 0.9930 or a decrease of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.