2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 80+ | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80+ in Alabama

1. 12,867 of 12,867 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 13,325 of 13,325 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 458 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 502 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 12,867 of 62,231 elderly women aged 80+ living in Alabama died from All Causes.

12,867 ÷ 62,231 = 0.20676 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 173,724 deaths from All Causes among 811,310 elderly women aged 80+ living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

173,724 ÷ 811,310 = 0.21413 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

62,231 X 0.21413 = 13,325 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

12,867 – 13,325 = -458

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

12,867 ÷ 13,325 = 0.9656

This reveals 458 lives saved and is 96.56% of what we expected (a decrease of 3%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

86,995 ÷ 406,479 = 0.21402 (5-yr CDR)

62,231(2022 pop) X 0.21402 = 13,319 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12,867 – 13,319 = -452 or 452 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

12,867 ÷ 13,319 = 0.9660 or a decrease of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

468,710 X 0.21413 = 100,364 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

99862 – 100,364 = -502 or 502 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

99,862 ÷ 100,364 = 0.9950 or a decrease of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.