2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 30-34 | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 30-34 in Arkansas

1. 428 of 428 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 27% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 336 of 336 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 92 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 484 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 27% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 428 of 202,275 people aged 30-34 living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

428 ÷ 202,275 = 0.00212 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,501 deaths from All Causes among 2,708,505 people aged 30-34 living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,501 ÷ 2,708,505 = 0.00166 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

202,275 X 0.00166 = 336 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

428 – 336 = 92

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

428 ÷ 336 = 1.2657

This reveals 92 lives lost and is 126.57% of what we expected (an increase of 27%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,634 ÷ 1,349,342 = 0.00195 (5-yr CDR)

202,275(2022 pop) X 0.00195 = 395 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

428 – 395 = 33 or 33 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

428 ÷ 395 = 1.0784 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,551,617 X 0.00166 = 2,578 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3062 – 2,578 = 484 or 484 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,062 ÷ 2,578 = 1.1804 or an increase of 18%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.