2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Arkansas

1. 4,519 of 4,519 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,145 of 4,145 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 374 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,052 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,519 of 142,386 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

4,519 ÷ 142,386 = 0.03174 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 43,329 deaths from All Causes among 1,488,326 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

43,329 ÷ 1,488,326 = 0.02911 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

142,386 X 0.02911 = 4,145 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,519 – 4,145 = 374

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,519 ÷ 4,145 = 1.0898

This reveals 374 lives lost and is 108.98% of what we expected (an increase of 9%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

27,679 ÷ 927,449 = 0.02984 (5-yr CDR)

142,386(2022 pop) X 0.02984 = 4,249 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,519 – 4,249 = 270 or 270 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,519 ÷ 4,249 = 1.0631 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,069,835 X 0.02911 = 31,146 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

32198 – 31,146 = 1,052 or 1,052 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

32,198 ÷ 31,146 = 1.0334 or an increase of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.