2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 70-74 | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in Arkansas

1. 1,977 of 1,977 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,794 of 1,794 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 183 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 506 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,977 of 76,485 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

1,977 ÷ 76,485 = 0.02585 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 18,936 deaths from All Causes among 807,459 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,936 ÷ 807,459 = 0.02345 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

76,485 X 0.02345 = 1,794 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,977 – 1,794 = 183

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,977 ÷ 1,794 = 1.1017

This reveals 183 lives lost and is 110.17% of what we expected (an increase of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,990 ÷ 497,527 = 0.02410 (5-yr CDR)

76,485(2022 pop) X 0.02410 = 1,843 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,977 – 1,843 = 134 or 134 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,977 ÷ 1,843 = 1.0721 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

574,012 X 0.02345 = 13,461 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13967 – 13,461 = 506 or 506 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

13,967 ÷ 13,461 = 1.0371 or an increase of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.