2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 30-34 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 30-34 in California

1. 4,568 of 4,568 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 74% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,594 of 2,594 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,974 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,889 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 74% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,568 of 2,989,584 people aged 30-34 living in California died from All Causes.

4,568 ÷ 2,989,584 = 0.00153 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 34,314 deaths from All Causes among 39,539,314 people aged 30-34 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

34,314 ÷ 39,539,314 = 0.00087 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,989,584 X 0.00087 = 2,594 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,568 – 2,594 = 1,974

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,568 ÷ 2,594 = 1.7406

This reveals 1,974 lives lost and is 174.06% of what we expected (an increase of 74%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

22,672 ÷ 20,460,198 = 0.00111 (5-yr CDR)

2,989,584(2022 pop) X 0.00111 = 3,313 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,568 – 3,313 = 1,255 or 1,255 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,568 ÷ 3,313 = 1.3666 or an increase of 37%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

23,449,782 X 0.00087 = 20,351 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

27240 – 20,351 = 6,889 or 6,889 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

27,240 ÷ 20,351 = 1.3233 or an increase of 32%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.