2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 40-44 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in California

1. 5,856 of 5,856 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 23% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,738 of 4,738 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,118 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,101 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 23% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 5,856 of 2,606,759 people aged 40-44 living in California died from All Causes.

5,856 ÷ 2,606,759 = 0.00225 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 73,117 deaths from All Causes among 40,230,935 people aged 40-44 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

73,117 ÷ 40,230,935 = 0.00182 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,606,759 X 0.00182 = 4,738 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5,856 – 4,738 = 1,118

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5,856 ÷ 4,738 = 1.2293

This reveals 1,118 lives lost and is 122.93% of what we expected (an increase of 23%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

32,160 ÷ 17,705,018 = 0.00182 (5-yr CDR)

2,606,759(2022 pop) X 0.00182 = 4,735 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5,856 – 4,735 = 1,121 or 1,121 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5,856 ÷ 4,735 = 1.2300 or an increase of 23%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

20,311,777 X 0.00182 = 36,915 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

38016 – 36,915 = 1,101 or 1,101 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

38,016 ÷ 36,915 = 1.0242 or an increase of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.