2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in California

1. 31,933 of 31,933 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 34,607 of 34,607 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2,674 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 27,746 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 31,933 of 1,586,759 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in California died from All Causes.

31,933 ÷ 1,586,759 = 0.02012 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 313,800 deaths from All Causes among 14,388,058 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

313,800 ÷ 14,388,058 = 0.02181 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,586,759 X 0.02181 = 34,607 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

31,933 – 34,607 = -2,674

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

31,933 ÷ 34,607 = 0.9223

This reveals 2,674 lives saved and is 92.23% of what we expected (a decrease of 8%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

191,754 ÷ 9,941,697 = 0.01929 (5-yr CDR)

1,586,759(2022 pop) X 0.01929 = 30,605 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

31,933 – 30,605 = 1,328 or 1,328 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

31,933 ÷ 30,605 = 1.0428 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

11,528,456 X 0.02181 = 251,433 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

223687 – 251,433 = -27,746 or 27,746 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

223,687 ÷ 251,433 = 0.8892 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.