2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 75-79 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 75-79 in California

1. 36,101 of 36,101 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 40,297 of 40,297 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 4,196 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 34,189 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 36,101 of 1,140,952 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in California died from All Causes.

36,101 ÷ 1,140,952 = 0.03164 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 414,174 deaths from All Causes among 11,726,861 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

414,174 ÷ 11,726,861 = 0.03532 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,140,952 X 0.03532 = 40,297 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

36,101 – 40,297 = -4,196

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

36,101 ÷ 40,297 = 0.8956

This reveals 4,196 lives saved and is 89.56% of what we expected (a decrease of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

209,978 ÷ 6,794,523 = 0.03090 (5-yr CDR)

1,140,952(2022 pop) X 0.03090 = 35,260 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

36,101 – 35,260 = 841 or 841 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

36,101 ÷ 35,260 = 1.0235 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,935,475 X 0.03532 = 280,268 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

246079 – 280,268 = -34,189 or 34,189 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

246,079 ÷ 280,268 = 0.8778 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.