2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Under 1 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for baby girls in their first year of life in California

1. 752 of 752 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 24% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 985 of 985 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 233 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,933 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 24% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many baby girls in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 752 of 207,859 baby girls in their first year of life living in California died from All Causes.

752 ÷ 207,859 = 0.00362 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 17,789 deaths from All Causes among 3,753,456 baby girls in their first year of life living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

17,789 ÷ 3,753,456 = 0.00474 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

207,859 X 0.00474 = 985 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

752 – 985 = -233

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

752 ÷ 985 = 0.7618

This reveals 233 lives saved and is 76.18% of what we expected (a decrease of 24%) in deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,937 ÷ 1,611,397 = 0.00368 (5-yr CDR)

207,859(2022 pop) X 0.00368 = 766 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

752 – 766 = -14 or 14 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

752 ÷ 766 = 0.9793 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,819,256 X 0.00474 = 8,622 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6689 – 8,622 = -1,933 or 1,933 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,689 ÷ 8,622 = 0.7742 or a decrease of 23%

in deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.