2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 50-54 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 50-54 in California

1. 3,641 of 3,641 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,970 of 3,970 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 329 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,629 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,641 of 1,220,937 women aged 50-54 living in California died from All Causes.

3,641 ÷ 1,220,937 = 0.00298 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 59,092 deaths from All Causes among 18,172,925 women aged 50-54 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

59,092 ÷ 18,172,925 = 0.00325 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,220,937 X 0.00325 = 3,970 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,641 – 3,970 = -329

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,641 ÷ 3,970 = 0.9143

This reveals 329 lives saved and is 91.43% of what we expected (a decrease of 9%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

26,596 ÷ 8,886,537 = 0.00299 (5-yr CDR)

1,220,937(2022 pop) X 0.00299 = 3,654 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,641 – 3,654 = -13 or 13 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,641 ÷ 3,654 = 0.9931 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,107,474 X 0.00325 = 32,866 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

30237 – 32,866 = -2,629 or 2,629 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

30,237 ÷ 32,866 = 0.9172 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.