2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 35-39 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 35-39 in California

1. 3,524 of 3,524 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 58% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,221 of 2,221 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,303 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4,715 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 58% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,524 of 1,441,295 men aged 35-39 living in California died from All Causes.

3,524 ÷ 1,441,295 = 0.00245 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 30,951 deaths from All Causes among 20,088,753 men aged 35-39 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

30,951 ÷ 20,088,753 = 0.00154 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,441,295 X 0.00154 = 2,221 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,524 – 2,221 = 1,303

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,524 ÷ 2,221 = 1.5767

This reveals 1,303 lives lost and is 157.67% of what we expected (an increase of 58%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

18,394 ÷ 9,724,322 = 0.00189 (5-yr CDR)

1,441,295(2022 pop) X 0.00189 = 2,726 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,524 – 2,726 = 798 or 798 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,524 ÷ 2,726 = 1.2858 or an increase of 29%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

11,165,617 X 0.00154 = 17,203 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21918 – 17,203 = 4,715 or 4,715 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

21,918 ÷ 17,203 = 1.2659 or an increase of 27%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.