2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 15-19 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in California

1. 486 of 1,131 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 42.97% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 22% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 596 of 1,262 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 110 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 131 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 719 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,369 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 22% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 486 of 2,564,615 teens aged 15-19 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

486 ÷ 2,564,615 = 0.00019 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,319 deaths from Unknown Causes among 40,078,657 teens aged 15-19 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,319 ÷ 40,078,657 = 0.00023 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,564,615 X 0.00023 = 596 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

486 – 596 = -110

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

486 ÷ 596 = 0.7814

This reveals 110 lives saved and is 78.14% of what we expected (a decrease of 22%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,555 ÷ 17,907,428 = 0.00020 (5-yr CDR)

2,564,615(2022 pop) X 0.00020 = 509 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

486 – 509 = -23 or 23 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

486 ÷ 509 = 0.9088 or a decrease of 9%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

20,472,043 X 0.00023 = 4,760 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4041 – 4,760 = -719 or 719 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,041 ÷ 4,760 = 0.8139 or a decrease of 19%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.