2022 Deaths – All Causes – Baby Girl – Under 1 | Colorado, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for baby girls in their first year of life in Colorado

1. 128 of 128 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 20% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 161 of 161 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 33 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 206 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 20% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many baby girls in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 128 of 30,669 baby girls in their first year of life living in Colorado died from All Causes.

128 ÷ 30,669 = 0.00417 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 2,536 deaths from All Causes among 484,407 baby girls in their first year of life living in Colorado in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,536 ÷ 484,407 = 0.00524 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

30,669 X 0.00524 = 161 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

128 – 161 = -33

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

128 ÷ 161 = 0.7957

This reveals 33 lives saved and is 79.57% of what we expected (a decrease of 20%) in deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in Colorado in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

994 ÷ 223,011 = 0.00446 (5-yr CDR)

30,669(2022 pop) X 0.00446 = 137 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

128 – 137 = -9 or 9 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

128 ÷ 137 = 0.9343 or a decrease of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in Colorado in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

253,680 X 0.00524 = 1,328 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1122 – 1,328 = -206 or 206 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,122 ÷ 1,328 = 0.8432 or a decrease of 16%

in deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in Colorado in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.