2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | District Of Columbia, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in District Of Columbia

1. 398 of 607 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 65.57% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 425 of 646 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 27 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 39 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 226 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 614 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of District Of Columbia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 398 of 22,543 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in District Of Columbia died from Unknown Causes.

398 ÷ 22,543 = 0.01766 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 4,482 deaths from Unknown Causes among 237,973 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in District Of Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,482 ÷ 237,973 = 0.01883 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

22,543 X 0.01883 = 425 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

398 – 425 = -27

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

398 ÷ 425 = 0.9369

This reveals 27 lives saved and is 93.69% of what we expected (a decrease of 6%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in District Of Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,528 ÷ 144,810 = 0.01746 (5-yr CDR)

22,543(2022 pop) X 0.01746 = 394 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

398 – 394 = 4 or 4 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

398 ÷ 394 = 1.0108 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in District Of Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

167,353 X 0.01883 = 3,152 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2926 – 3,152 = -226 or 226 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,926 ÷ 3,152 = 0.9278 or a decrease of 7%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in District Of Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.