2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80+ | District Of Columbia, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in District Of Columbia

1. 1,259 of 1,796 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 70.10% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,161 of 1,931 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 98 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 135 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,363 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 20 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of District Of Columbia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,259 of 10,298 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in District Of Columbia died from Unknown Causes.

1,259 ÷ 10,298 = 0.12226 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 16,908 deaths from Unknown Causes among 149,929 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in District Of Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

16,908 ÷ 149,929 = 0.11277 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

10,298 X 0.11277 = 1,161 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,259 – 1,161 = 98

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,259 ÷ 1,161 = 1.0840

This reveals 98 lives lost and is 108.40% of what we expected (an increase of 8%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in District Of Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,835 ÷ 67,127 = 0.13162 (5-yr CDR)

10,298(2022 pop) X 0.13162 = 1,355 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,259 – 1,355 = -96 or 96 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,259 ÷ 1,355 = 0.9288 or a decrease of 7%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in District Of Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

77,425 X 0.11277 = 8,731 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10094 – 8,731 = 1,363 or 1,363 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

10,094 ÷ 8,731 = 1.1559 or an increase of 16%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in District Of Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.