2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80+ | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in Illinois

1. 52,094 of 52,094 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 50,902 of 50,902 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,192 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 23,185 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 52,094 of 250,017 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Illinois died from All Causes.

52,094 ÷ 250,017 = 0.20836 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 708,735 deaths from All Causes among 3,481,100 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

708,735 ÷ 3,481,100 = 0.20360 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

250,017 X 0.20360 = 50,902 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

52,094 – 50,902 = 1,192

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

52,094 ÷ 50,902 = 1.0234

This reveals 1,192 lives lost and is 102.34% of what we expected (an increase of 2%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

355,486 ÷ 1,638,018 = 0.21702 (5-yr CDR)

250,017(2022 pop) X 0.21702 = 54,259 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

52,094 – 54,259 = -2,165 or 2,165 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

52,094 ÷ 54,259 = 0.9601 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,888,035 X 0.20360 = 384,395 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

407580 – 384,395 = 23,185 or 23,185 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

407,580 ÷ 384,395 = 1.0603 or an increase of 6%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.