2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 50-54 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Illinois

1. 2,517 of 2,517 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,426 of 2,426 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 91 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 208 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,517 of 401,037 men aged 50-54 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

2,517 ÷ 401,037 = 0.00628 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 38,670 deaths from All Causes among 6,393,042 men aged 50-54 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

38,670 ÷ 6,393,042 = 0.00605 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

401,037 X 0.00605 = 2,426 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,517 – 2,426 = 91

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,517 ÷ 2,426 = 1.0359

This reveals 91 lives lost and is 103.59% of what we expected (an increase of 4%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

17,160 ÷ 2,886,414 = 0.00595 (5-yr CDR)

401,037(2022 pop) X 0.00595 = 2,384 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,517 – 2,384 = 133 or 133 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,517 ÷ 2,384 = 1.0539 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,287,451 X 0.00605 = 19,885 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

19677 – 19,885 = -208 or 208 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

19,677 ÷ 19,885 = 0.9879 or a decrease of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.