2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 80+ | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80+ in Illinois

1. 21,789 of 21,789 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 20,837 of 20,837 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 952 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 8,891 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 21,789 of 102,821 elderly men aged 80+ living in Illinois died from All Causes.

21,789 ÷ 102,821 = 0.21191 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 267,987 deaths from All Causes among 1,322,389 elderly men aged 80+ living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

267,987 ÷ 1,322,389 = 0.20265 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

102,821 X 0.20265 = 20,837 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

21,789 – 20,837 = 952

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

21,789 ÷ 20,837 = 1.0456

This reveals 952 lives lost and is 104.56% of what we expected (an increase of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

143,946 ÷ 671,128 = 0.21448 (5-yr CDR)

102,821(2022 pop) X 0.21448 = 22,053 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21,789 – 22,053 = -264 or 264 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

21,789 ÷ 22,053 = 0.9880 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

773,949 X 0.20265 = 156,844 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

165735 – 156,844 = 8,891 or 8,891 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

165,735 ÷ 156,844 = 1.0566 or an increase of 6%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.