2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 30-34 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 30-34 in Kentucky

1. 737 of 737 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 53% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 478 of 478 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 259 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,682 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 53% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 737 of 299,923 people aged 30-34 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

737 ÷ 299,923 = 0.00246 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 6,751 deaths from All Causes among 4,235,818 people aged 30-34 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

6,751 ÷ 4,235,818 = 0.00159 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

299,923 X 0.00159 = 478 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

737 – 478 = 259

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

737 ÷ 478 = 1.5322

This reveals 259 lives lost and is 153.22% of what we expected (an increase of 53%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,557 ÷ 1,966,103 = 0.00232 (5-yr CDR)

299,923(2022 pop) X 0.00232 = 695 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

737 – 695 = 42 or 42 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

737 ÷ 695 = 1.0556 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,266,026 X 0.00159 = 3,612 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5294 – 3,612 = 1,682 or 1,682 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,294 ÷ 3,612 = 1.4567 or an increase of 46%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.