2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 35-39 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 35-39 in Kentucky

1. 1,001 of 1,001 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 77% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 564 of 564 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 437 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,300 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 77% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,001 of 277,426 people aged 35-39 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

1,001 ÷ 277,426 = 0.00361 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 8,889 deaths from All Causes among 4,374,904 people aged 35-39 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,889 ÷ 4,374,904 = 0.00203 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

277,426 X 0.00203 = 564 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,001 – 564 = 437

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,001 ÷ 564 = 1.7671

This reveals 437 lives lost and is 176.71% of what we expected (an increase of 77%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,851 ÷ 1,962,696 = 0.00298 (5-yr CDR)

277,426(2022 pop) X 0.00298 = 827 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,001 – 827 = 174 or 174 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,001 ÷ 827 = 1.2063 or an increase of 21%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,240,122 X 0.00203 = 4,552 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6852 – 4,552 = 2,300 or 2,300 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,852 ÷ 4,552 = 1.4981 or an increase of 50%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.