2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Kentucky

1. 6,891 of 6,891 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 6,719 of 6,719 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 172 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 623 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 6,891 of 214,250 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

6,891 ÷ 214,250 = 0.03216 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 64,331 deaths from All Causes among 2,051,413 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

64,331 ÷ 2,051,413 = 0.03136 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

214,250 X 0.03136 = 6,719 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

6,891 – 6,719 = 172

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

6,891 ÷ 6,719 = 1.0253

This reveals 172 lives lost and is 102.53% of what we expected (an increase of 3%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

40,856 ÷ 1,328,182 = 0.03076 (5-yr CDR)

214,250(2022 pop) X 0.03076 = 6,591 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6,891 – 6,591 = 300 or 300 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

6,891 ÷ 6,591 = 1.0453 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,542,432 X 0.03136 = 48,370 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

47747 – 48,370 = -623 or 623 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

47,747 ÷ 48,370 = 0.9868 or a decrease of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.