2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 35-39 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 35-39 in Kentucky

1. 371 of 371 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 83% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 201 of 201 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 170 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 877 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 83% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 371 of 137,213 women aged 35-39 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

371 ÷ 137,213 = 0.00270 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,199 deaths from All Causes among 2,184,722 women aged 35-39 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,199 ÷ 2,184,722 = 0.00146 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

137,213 X 0.00146 = 201 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

371 – 201 = 170

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

371 ÷ 201 = 1.8340

This reveals 170 lives lost and is 183.40% of what we expected (an increase of 83%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 35-39 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,146 ÷ 983,101 = 0.00218 (5-yr CDR)

137,213(2022 pop) X 0.00218 = 300 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

371 – 300 = 71 or 71 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

371 ÷ 300 = 1.2330 or an increase of 23%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 35-39 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,120,314 X 0.00146 = 1,640 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2517 – 1,640 = 877 or 877 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,517 ÷ 1,640 = 1.5239 or an increase of 52%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 35-39 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.