2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 60-64 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 60-64 in Kentucky

1. 2,032 of 2,032 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 25% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,629 of 1,629 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 403 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,322 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 25% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,032 of 151,779 women aged 60-64 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

2,032 ÷ 151,779 = 0.01339 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 18,441 deaths from All Causes among 1,717,870 women aged 60-64 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,441 ÷ 1,717,870 = 0.01073 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

151,779 X 0.01073 = 1,629 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,032 – 1,629 = 403

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,032 ÷ 1,629 = 1.2460

This reveals 403 lives lost and is 124.60% of what we expected (an increase of 25%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12,155 ÷ 1,046,642 = 0.01161 (5-yr CDR)

151,779(2022 pop) X 0.01161 = 1,763 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,032 – 1,763 = 269 or 269 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,032 ÷ 1,763 = 1.1518 or an increase of 15%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,198,421 X 0.01073 = 12,865 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

14187 – 12,865 = 1,322 or 1,322 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

14,187 ÷ 12,865 = 1.1017 or an increase of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.